The universe is no stranger to disease pandemics, they have plagued the world of humans since the days of early cave dwellers. Pre and post Christ years had their share; but most notably was the scourge of middle ages - Eurasian region, labeled “The Black Death”. Later, the disease was identified as the Bubonic Plague which could be traced, initially to Asia and later Europe, as early as 3000 BC. The disease moved thru three continents by way of cargo ships and the hosts were mostly fleas and rats – a staple on these vessels. Effective treatment was essentially non-existent and methods, as administered, were draconian at best. The disease viciously attacked humans and animals alike and at the end of 8 years had taken the lives of 50 million Europeans and as many as 200 million people, worldwide.
In the 700 years following the Bubonic Plague, there has been several other epidemics – polio, small pox, Tuberculosis, Ebola, HIV/AIDS and of course the tried and tested influenza. However, during that period, science made enormous strides, a significant portion of which occurred within the last 100 years. It is, therefore surprising that today – now, in the 21st century, the world should be facing a viral pandemic with no clear direction as to – a) how to contain the contagious spread of the virus; b) how to prevent it from killing thousands of people. In the early years, the science was lacking; today, we have the science, it's the people - government administrators, that have fallen short.
Since the coronavirus – covid-19, appeared on the world stage in late December 2019, a lot has been written, in attempt to explain – a) its origin; b) level of contagion; c) how long it would last. Most of this narrative was politically motivated, to the point where the majority of people were confused. My attempt here is to share my perspective, based on available information disseminated to date – no spin; what was done right, what was done poorly and what still needs to be completed before we can declare “Mission Accomplished”
In the 700 years following the Bubonic Plague, there has been several other epidemics – polio, small pox, Tuberculosis, Ebola, HIV/AIDS and of course the tried and tested influenza. However, during that period, science made enormous strides, a significant portion of which occurred within the last 100 years. It is, therefore surprising that today – now, in the 21st century, the world should be facing a viral pandemic with no clear direction as to – a) how to contain the contagious spread of the virus; b) how to prevent it from killing thousands of people. In the early years, the science was lacking; today, we have the science, it's the people - government administrators, that have fallen short.
Since the coronavirus – covid-19, appeared on the world stage in late December 2019, a lot has been written, in attempt to explain – a) its origin; b) level of contagion; c) how long it would last. Most of this narrative was politically motivated, to the point where the majority of people were confused. My attempt here is to share my perspective, based on available information disseminated to date – no spin; what was done right, what was done poorly and what still needs to be completed before we can declare “Mission Accomplished”
As has been the case with so many of these viruses over the years, the origins of covid-19 allegedly stemmed from China - a “wet market” in Wuhan - as shown above. Theories about conspiracies between the Chinese government and World Health Organization (WHO) were rampant, spurred even further by rantings from Donald Trump. However, all that said, there are two indisputable facts – a) the virus did, in fact, originate in china – whether from a wet market or an accidental release from a research lab in Wuhan; b) spread and contagion were rapid and widespread. Within weeks, infected people started appearing on cruise ships, docked at piers on West Coast US and in Europe, starting in Italy. The disinformation campaign was also widespread, with Trump being the leader; other Heads of State also threw in their lot, most notably Boris Johnson, who delayed any corrective action for Great Britain, until it was too late. However, reality caught up with Boris, he eventually tested positive, was quarantined for 2 weeks, steadily got worse and ended up in a hospital ICU – minutes away from being placed on a ventilator. But, the Prime Minister of the UK survived and was able to resume his job – his message now totally different. Place cursor over photos for comments.
However, for the US, we had an entirely different situation. As the virus continued to spread, globally, devastating Venice, Italy, moving to Spain and other EU countries, Trump ignored this reality in favor of his own agenda and saw covid-19 as an opportunity to score political points – hang the covid-19 outbreak around the necks of the Democrats. So, without further ado, he launched his false narrative. Here are a few quick grabs.
When it became apparent that covid-19 was real and spreading, Trump changed his strategy to downplay the looming catastrophe and its pending impact on the US, as follows:
And then, still later, as the number of US infections continued to rise:
Point made, and the impact of all this, summarized in a phrase – “ No preparation what so ever” - (click for video clip) The CDC reported on May 10th that approximately 36,000 lives were lost because the United States failed to act sooner. UNITED STATES OF AMERICA – the greatest, most powerful and wealthiest country in the world, was ill prepared to meet and deal with the onslaught of covid-19, as it raged across the country. In no short order, we were # 1 in just about all things negative. On April 27th the nation recorded over 1 million "test positive" cases; and over 50,000 deaths due to covid-19. New York City exploded with number of positive tests and deaths. Reality finally took hold and the nation moved to Lock Down, even as cities across the country struggled to deal with the onslaught of this crippling devastation.
- It's a Hoax
- The Democrats have conspired with the Chinese to create Covid-19 - NOT REAL!
- The Chinese created this fake news with the media to derail ME in the November election.
When it became apparent that covid-19 was real and spreading, Trump changed his strategy to downplay the looming catastrophe and its pending impact on the US, as follows:
- This is just the flu, nothing to worry about
- It will disappear when the weather gets warm – like a miracle
And then, still later, as the number of US infections continued to rise:
- China and the World Health Organization (WHO) conspired to withhold vital INTEL on the spreading virus.
- I always knew this was coming , that’s why I closed the border with China and later Europe
- Maybe injecting Clorox or some cleaning liquid will just clean up the lungs in a day or so.
Point made, and the impact of all this, summarized in a phrase – “ No preparation what so ever” - (click for video clip) The CDC reported on May 10th that approximately 36,000 lives were lost because the United States failed to act sooner. UNITED STATES OF AMERICA – the greatest, most powerful and wealthiest country in the world, was ill prepared to meet and deal with the onslaught of covid-19, as it raged across the country. In no short order, we were # 1 in just about all things negative. On April 27th the nation recorded over 1 million "test positive" cases; and over 50,000 deaths due to covid-19. New York City exploded with number of positive tests and deaths. Reality finally took hold and the nation moved to Lock Down, even as cities across the country struggled to deal with the onslaught of this crippling devastation.
As a nation, the hope is that ALL who “just couldn’t vote for Hilary Clinton” and either voted for Trump or elected not to vote, in the 2016 Presidential election, will have now seen the errors of that decision. Comes November 2020, all will have an opportunity to correct the egregious mistake made in 2016. If that occurs and Trump is voted out, it would have been a steep price to pay but the final outcome would, at least be, in some way, rewarding. Please understand that this is NOT about being a Democrat or Republican; this is clearly about a person - Donald J Trump, an individual who for his entire life has twisted and played his father's fortune solely for his benefit. He is completely devoid of compassion and empathy; he's a pathological liar and thinks only about himself. Leadership skills are completely foreign to him. He is by far the worst choice, ever, for the position of POTUS - a situation that must be rectified in Nov. 2020.
But this is not really or only about Trump – focus IS the virus, itself. In many ways new – albeit an integral member of the coronavirus basket of viruses, a lot is simply not known. Dr Anthony Fauci, well recognized medical expert and head of National Institute of Health - NIAID, has made a gallant effort to provide credible information on the virus - Trump's efforts to realign the facts, notwithstanding. However, misinformation abounded, along with no information at all, as everyone struggled to understand what should and/or should not be done to protect oneself. The individual nuances of conjecture are all together too numerous, so I’ll focus on only the significant and the critical.
In an attempt to understand the mortality impact to the country and the world, it’s important to set a benchmark, based on factual data. We appear to have a solid sense of three (3) key elements, as follows:
In an attempt to understand the mortality impact to the country and the world, it’s important to set a benchmark, based on factual data. We appear to have a solid sense of three (3) key elements, as follows:
- How many people tested, were confirmed positive – whether or not they were actually sick
- How many people, of the total confirmed positives, have actually died.
Worldometer has done an excellent job of providing timely and up to date data on the global impact of the virus. The information provided below was extracted directly from the Coronavirus data set on the Worldometer website, recognizing that the numbers are constantly changing, presented below is a snap shot as of May 25, 2020.
Total US population 328.2 million
Adjust for people out of range – 10% ( no scientific basis to this number) (32.8)
Total US population - adjusted 295.4
US tested positive % of total tests performed – 11%
Potential # of US population that could be infected 32 million
(note that this number is within a range, similar to the number of people infected with influenza, annually)
Current US covid-19 mortality rate - 5.88% as of May 25, 2020 5%
Projected number of people that could die from covid-19 infection - over the next 2 yrs 1.6 million
Total US population 328.2 million
Adjust for people out of range – 10% ( no scientific basis to this number) (32.8)
Total US population - adjusted 295.4
US tested positive % of total tests performed – 11%
Potential # of US population that could be infected 32 million
(note that this number is within a range, similar to the number of people infected with influenza, annually)
Current US covid-19 mortality rate - 5.88% as of May 25, 2020 5%
Projected number of people that could die from covid-19 infection - over the next 2 yrs 1.6 million
Carlson claims mortality rate is not as high as projected - experts disagree. Click on photo for access to site. The Trump administration and his supporters – including the media, are playing fast and loose with the projected mortality data being published. Tucker Carlson claimed on May 5th that the 3 - 6% mortality rate is severely overstated because antibody tests performed at random, suggested that a "significant" portion of the population had already contracted covid-19, albeit that they may not been been sick. Consequently, that number - whatever it was, should be added to Total Confirmed Positives (TCP's). If this were to be done, the % of total deaths to TCP's would drop precipitously. It would also be incorrect! There are several factors – independent variables, that if achieved, would reduce the fatality number, but no one knows when and/or if and to what extent. A vaccine would add significant value, providing it turned out to be effective. But the scientists - Dr Fauci included, are being very careful not to present any vaccine as a panacea; there are too many unknowns; and history is riddled with vaccines that not only did not work but were the cause of a significant number of deaths
As we are all so aware, the potential death toll per the White House and presented in the media, changes daily – this, to keep that number at its lowest level, in order to support Trump's re-election prospects. But the number keeps moving up. As of May 25th, projection is that we will be at 134,000 dead by EOM August. This number, up from 74,000 only 2 weeks prior; and up from 60,000 2 weeks before that. Well, here’s the reality.
The actual, average number of daily deaths - calculated from actual daily US covid-19 deaths, reported by Worldometer, is approximately 1,200 – an extremely conservative number because it factors all deaths, starting on March 9th, when daily fatalities were in the single digits. Today, using a 7 day rolling average (current day, going back 7 days) that number is lot closer to 2,000. However, at 1,200/day times 45 days - May 15th to June 30th, yields a total of 54,000 people; add that number to current actual fatalities (87,000 as of May 15th) and we have a whopping 141,000 and that’s only thru the end of June – two months ahead of August. Another lie!! We will actually hit 100,000 fatalities by Monday, 5/25/20.
So, what makes the above analysis more credible than the trash presented by the media. Well, here’s the answer.
As we are all so aware, the potential death toll per the White House and presented in the media, changes daily – this, to keep that number at its lowest level, in order to support Trump's re-election prospects. But the number keeps moving up. As of May 25th, projection is that we will be at 134,000 dead by EOM August. This number, up from 74,000 only 2 weeks prior; and up from 60,000 2 weeks before that. Well, here’s the reality.
The actual, average number of daily deaths - calculated from actual daily US covid-19 deaths, reported by Worldometer, is approximately 1,200 – an extremely conservative number because it factors all deaths, starting on March 9th, when daily fatalities were in the single digits. Today, using a 7 day rolling average (current day, going back 7 days) that number is lot closer to 2,000. However, at 1,200/day times 45 days - May 15th to June 30th, yields a total of 54,000 people; add that number to current actual fatalities (87,000 as of May 15th) and we have a whopping 141,000 and that’s only thru the end of June – two months ahead of August. Another lie!! We will actually hit 100,000 fatalities by Monday, 5/25/20.
So, what makes the above analysis more credible than the trash presented by the media. Well, here’s the answer.
Statistical analysis is used daily to evaluate what the public thinks about, whatever. A sample is selected and those people are questioned; their answers are recorded and categorized and then applied to the population at large. The sample is usually only a small percent of the total population but the results, when presented, apply to the entire universe. Well, that is exactly what this is. Click on - PEW Research provides more detail on Statistical Analyses.
We know how many tests were performed; and we also know how many tested positive; how many tested negative – its, on average, 80/20. These results are a lot more credible than a pollster asking a bunch of people if they like Trump or Biden and why – yet the latter is initiated and the results published, weekly. A covid-19 test has 3 possible outcomes – positive, negative or WRONG – the latter is relatively insignificant, compared to the total; so we can conclude that, on average, for every 10 people tested, 2 will be positive; 8 will be negative. If that is acceptable – no reason to believe that it isn't, then that percent can be applied to the total adjusted population of the country. And, if we go backwards to previous pandemics – swine flu, H1N1, SARS, etc. we see the exact approach, above, used to evaluate mortality. Difference is, the kill rate for those viruses was less than 1% - example, influenza, 45 million annual infections, 30,000 deaths – this is just a snapshot; the kill rate: .07%
And for the 80 plus % that tested negative? possibilities are - a) they have not been exposed to the virus; b) they have been exposed and contracted the virus but have developed antibodies and are not ill. A lot is still unknown; can someone with antibodies infect others? no clear answer at this time, however, to refute Carlson's claims, those individuals have been accounted for in the covid-19 testing process. They were either tested and found positive - were sick and placed in the hospital; not (seriously) sick and sent home OR they tested completely negative and again sent home. As a slice/sample of the universe, the testing process is already accounting for those people Carlson is attempting to add back into the data set. How shameful is that!!
We know how many tests were performed; and we also know how many tested positive; how many tested negative – its, on average, 80/20. These results are a lot more credible than a pollster asking a bunch of people if they like Trump or Biden and why – yet the latter is initiated and the results published, weekly. A covid-19 test has 3 possible outcomes – positive, negative or WRONG – the latter is relatively insignificant, compared to the total; so we can conclude that, on average, for every 10 people tested, 2 will be positive; 8 will be negative. If that is acceptable – no reason to believe that it isn't, then that percent can be applied to the total adjusted population of the country. And, if we go backwards to previous pandemics – swine flu, H1N1, SARS, etc. we see the exact approach, above, used to evaluate mortality. Difference is, the kill rate for those viruses was less than 1% - example, influenza, 45 million annual infections, 30,000 deaths – this is just a snapshot; the kill rate: .07%
And for the 80 plus % that tested negative? possibilities are - a) they have not been exposed to the virus; b) they have been exposed and contracted the virus but have developed antibodies and are not ill. A lot is still unknown; can someone with antibodies infect others? no clear answer at this time, however, to refute Carlson's claims, those individuals have been accounted for in the covid-19 testing process. They were either tested and found positive - were sick and placed in the hospital; not (seriously) sick and sent home OR they tested completely negative and again sent home. As a slice/sample of the universe, the testing process is already accounting for those people Carlson is attempting to add back into the data set. How shameful is that!!
Over the past 3 weeks, many States witnessed what has been referred to as "A flattening of the curve" - that dramatic daily increase in positive tests and fatalities, now beginning to level. Not a miracle, this was due to two factors - a) ordering people to stay home; b) For those who had to be out, wear a mask and practice social distancing. However no remedy or cure has been applied, so as soon as those restrictions are eased, the likelihood that the virus will again kick in, is quite high. As the States begin opening up for Memorial Day weekend, we'll see how much a resurgence is generated and whether of not another "Lock Down" will be required.
The White House, by inference, would have the country believe that the fatality number will be under 200,000 at max; and that the present projection will somehow freeze at 134,000. This is simply not true. As we move thru the summer months, we will see what is the impact on easing restrictions and whether or not there will a resurgence - second wave.
The White House, by inference, would have the country believe that the fatality number will be under 200,000 at max; and that the present projection will somehow freeze at 134,000. This is simply not true. As we move thru the summer months, we will see what is the impact on easing restrictions and whether or not there will a resurgence - second wave.
The covid-19 saga is far from over. We wait patiently for a vaccine and hope that, on arrival, it will be effective. The economy is in shambles and efforts to re-open the country successfully - allowing people to go back to work, is contingent upon a solid and comprehensive strategy, which currently does not exist. In the mean time billions of dollars are being farmed out with no concrete assurances that those most in need are receiving the financial assistance they so desperately need. On Monday, May 13th Moderna, a Massachusetts based Biotech company, announced that they were weeks away from launching an effective vaccine; The company's stock surged 30%, fueling a great day in the market. Following the surge, the company immediately announced a stock offering, using the inflated stock price, to raise $1 billion. It now appears that scientists cannot substantiate the company's claim. Within the week following, Company executives sold off/cashed in more than $85 million in market equity. And this is only one of several stories of financial manipulation and malfeasance occurring across the US and world.
... and without any suspicious criminal intent implied, Forbes reported that American billionaires added a total of $280 billion to their collective equity holdings; Jeff Bezos - $35 billion; Mark Zuckerberg - $25 billion. Globally, the total increase was $434 billion. That's the nature of the world in which we live; however, it's for the government - our government, to ensure that there is even a semblance of equity for the people - the front line workers who are working 18 hour days to keep everyone else safe and fed; the small business owners who are poised to see their life's work come crashing to the ground in a chapter 11 bankruptcy. When the government fails to accomplish the task of supporting these and other people in need, they've failed the voters who put them in office and (they) should be summarily removed.
How this will all end is anyone's guess. Clearly the biggest losers are the people who have lost their lives - as of 5/25/20, 100,000 US residents and counting, and the critically ill who, even as they recover, will see their health profiles dramatically modified. The 134,000 predicted by the White House is a figment of someone's imagination and hidden agenda - even 200,000 is a bit comical. Will fatalities hit 2 million, well we certainly hope not; but a lot will depend on how well this crisis is managed at the top.
How this will all end is anyone's guess. Clearly the biggest losers are the people who have lost their lives - as of 5/25/20, 100,000 US residents and counting, and the critically ill who, even as they recover, will see their health profiles dramatically modified. The 134,000 predicted by the White House is a figment of someone's imagination and hidden agenda - even 200,000 is a bit comical. Will fatalities hit 2 million, well we certainly hope not; but a lot will depend on how well this crisis is managed at the top.
RSS Feed